Predicting the future is so hard. Even experts mostly get it wrong. To add to the complexity, the timing of events (what gets done when) can make huge difference on the impact these events collectively have.
Consider two such potential developments, very relevant to all of us.
- Longevity – how long we can live.
- Maintaining good health – For how long can we maintain good health.
Imagine what happens if 1 happens first, that is we develop technology so that all of us can live long. But we still start having poor health around the same age that we do today. This will result in a growing population of old and sick people, creating numerous problems in society.
However if 2 happens first, that is we maintain good health for much longer, but die around the same time as now. The result will be a society having more and more healthy, happy and productive population.
This is using just two of the factors. The fact is that we are making exponential strides on countless fronts. Imagine how daunting it can be to make predictions in such an environment